Dirk Koetter and The Big Miss Tiger Woods’ former swing coach Cheap Donovan Smith Jersey , Hank Haney, wrote a book entitled The Big Miss. when the pressure is on and they have to hit a certain shot. In Tiger’s case, it’s the dreaded duck hook (huge miss to the left) that he’s fought hard to eliminate from his game over a number of swing changes. My personal big miss is a huge high slice off to the right. My hips turn too fast, my arms lag behind inside, I leave the club face wide open at impact and off the ball goes into some horrible trouble lurking on the course. I feel the pressure of the moment and don’t perform.You might be asking yourself “why the heck am I reading about golf in a football article?” Well, in football, the red zone is where the pressure ramps up for offensive coordinators and the entire offense. Over the course of Koetter’s coaching career, the red zone has often been his big miss. If a team isn’t successful enough in scoring touchdowns in the red zone, there is a very high probability they’re not going to win enough games to reach the playoffs, unless their defense is an elite unit. This article is going to look at the red zone data for Koetter’s offenses over the last eleven seasons. Now, let me be very clear that not everything wrong that happens in the red zone is the fault of play calling or scheme, and is not an attack on the Bucs play caller. Coach Koetter isn’t responsible for a fumbled snap Peyton Barber Jersey , or missed blocking assignment, or dropped passes, or a misread by the QB, or any other crazy thing that can happen in football. So much has to go right in order to score touchdowns against eleven very large men trying to stop you in a compressed space. Coach Koetter can’t control anything once the ball is snapped. It’s on the players to make the play call work and get the ball across the goal line. But, over a large enough sample size of plays, it can’t all come down to lack of player execution and one can point to the struggles this particular offensive scheme has had in scoring touchdowns inside the red zone. The red zone numbers by year are from Team Rankings and the offensive and defensive line rankings are from Football Outsiders.Jacksonville Jaguars 2007 Red zone touchdown scoring: 57% conversion rate on 58 attempts. Ranked 8thRed zone scoring attempts per game. 3.6 (rank 3rd)Red zone touchdowns per game: 2.1 (rank 6th)Offensive points per game: 23.8 (rank 5th)Offensive line ranking: 18th run blocking. 17th pass protection.Defense ranking: 15thJacksonville Jaguars 2008Red zone touchdown scoring: 55% conversion rate on 45 attempts. Ranked 15th.Red zone scoring attempts per game: 2.8 (rank 22nd)Red zone touchdowns per game: 1.6 (ranked 20th)Offensive points per game: 17.6 (rank 24th)Offensive line ranking: 12 run blocking. 24th pass protection.Defense ranking: 24thJacksonville Jaguars 2009Red zone touchdown scoring: 51% conversion rate on 47 attempts. Ranked 16th.Red zone scoring attempts per game: 2.9 (rank 20th)Red zone touchdowns per game: 1.5 (rank 19th)Offensive points per game: 18.2 (rank 22nd)Offensive line ranking: 11th run blocking. 29th pass protection.Defense ranking: 28thJacksonville Jaguars 2010Red zone touchdown scoring: 63% conversion rate on 46 attempts. Ranked 3rd.Red zone scoring attempts per game: 2.9 (rank 20th)Red zone touchdowns per game: 1.8 (rank 13th)Offensive points per game: 21.6 (rank 12th)Offensive line ranking: 2nd run blocking. 24th pass protection.Defense ranking: 32ndJacksonville Jaguars 2011Red zone touchdown scoring: 48% conversion rate on 35 attempts. Ranked 21st.Red zone scoring attempts per game: 2.2 (rank 30th)Red zone touchdowns per game: 1.1 (rank 27th)Offensive points per game: 13.5 (rank 29th)Offensive line ranking: 13th run blocking. 26th pass protection.Defense ranking: 5thAtlanta Falcons 2012Red zone touchdown scoring: 57% conversion rate on 63 attempts. Rank 10th.Red zone scoring attempts per game: 3.8 (rank 4th)Red zone touchdowns per game: 2.2(rank 4th)Offensive points per game: 25.6 (rank 4th)Offensive line ranking: 24th run blocking. 8th pass protection.Defense ranking: 12thAtlanta Falcons 2013Red zone touchdown scoring: 51% conversion rate on 52 attempts. Ranked 22nd.Red zone scoring attempts per game: 3.2 (rank 14th)Red zone touchdowns per game: 1.7 (rank 17th)Offensive points per game: 20.7 (rank 19th)Offensive line ranking: 24th run blocking. 7th pass protection.Defense ranking: 29thAtlanta Falcons 2014Red zone touchdown scoring: 61% conversion on 44 attempts. Ranked 6th.Red zone scoring attempts per game: 2.8 (rank 26th)Red zone touchdowns per game: 1.7 (rank 16th)Offensive points per game: 22.5 (rank 12th)Offensive line ranking: 14th run blocking. 11th pass protection.Defense ranking: 32ndTampa Bay Buccaneers 2015Red zone touchdown scoring: 52% conversion rate on 51 attempts. Ranked 22nd.Red zone scoring attempts per game: 3.2 (rank 13th)Red zone touchdowns per game: 1.7 (rank 15th)Offensive points per game: 20.3 (rank 19th)Offensive line ranking: 9th run blocking. 14th pass protection.Defense ranking: 18thTampa Bay Buccaneers 2016Red zone touchdown scoring: 51% conversion rate on 54 attempts. Ranked 20th.Red zone scoring attempts per game: 3.4 (rank 11th)Red zone touchdowns per game: 1.8 (rank 16th)Offensive points per game: 20.3 (rank 20th)Offensive line ranking: 21st run blocking. 16th pass protection.Defense ranking: 13thTampa Bay Buccaneers 2017Red zone touchdown scoring: 49% conversion rate on 53 attempts. Ranked 24th.Red zone scoring attempts per game: 3.3 (rank 8th)Red zone touchdowns per game: 1.6 (rank 13th)Offensive points per game: 19.6 (rank 19th)Offensive line ranking: 16th run blocking. 16th pass protection.Defense ranking: 32ndWhew. Still with me? If your eyes haven’t glazed over yet, let’s keep going. Koetter’s offense has only had a 2.0 or above, in red zone touchdowns per game twice in eleven seasons, despite being in the top fifteen in red zone attempts in six of those years. The Bucs have been in the top fifteen in attempts for three consecutive years. The most successful years he has had as a play caller, in terms of scoring, were the with the Falcons. A fifth, sixth and seventh year Matt Ryan had the experience, decision making Cheap Justin Evans Jersey , and accuracy to run Koetter’s offense the most efficiently it’s been run in eleven seasons. It is a tough scheme and often requires higher difficulty throws and tight window completions. Those throws and windows only get more difficult and smaller in the red zone. Another thing the Falcons had that helped make this offensive scheme work more efficiently, was an offensive line that was in or just outside the top ten in pass protection every year. If the Bucs are going to crack the top ten in red zone touchdown scoring efficiency, having an offensive line in the top ten in pass protection would go a long way to accomplishing that feat. I hesitate to say necessity, but based on the data, it might be a necessity. It is a passing league and quarterbacks in this offense have thrown a combined 1,718 passes (572 avg) over the last three seasons. Even with an improved run blocking offensive line and addition of Ronald Jones, expect the ball to be in the air more than five hundred times and a lot in the red zone, which puts a bigger premium on play calling creativity AND execution.A staple of Koetter’s offensive philosophy is the desire for explosive plays. Because of that, the offense can move the ball up and down the field on a pretty consistent basis. But, as the numbers show, once the field gets compressed inside the red zone, it can be more of a struggle to complete the drive with a touchdown. Some of that is player execution. Some of that is play design. The challenging part is determining which is the bigger cause for the red zone struggles attached to this scheme.So does that mean the Bucs red zone struggles of the last three years are guaranteed to repeat itself? Of course not. As I wrote earlier, not everything bad that happens is Koetter’s fault. The Falcons had bad injury luck and lost Julio Jones in 2013. He had eventual first round bust Blaine Gabbert as his quarterback in 2011. While the data doesn’t look promising for a big red zone scoring turn around Buccaneers Caleb Benenoch Jersey , anything can happen year to year, and as fellow Bucs Nation writer Jon Marchant wrote, the Bucs are experimenting with more run pass option plays in 2018. Using more of those in the red zone would be a positive step in the right direction to scoring more touchdowns. Ultimately, fixing the scoring woes will boil down to how much of a leap Jameis Winston makes going into his fourth year, Koetter breaking some play calling tendencies, and how much the offensive line can protect/open running lanes once the pressure is on inside the red zone. The first preseason game is tonight. The Bucs struggled finishing off drives in last years preseason games and that struggle transferred into the regular season. It is now or never for the coaching staff and players. Don’t miss. Are you kidding me? For the first time since 2010 the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have started a season 2-0 - and we’re not talking about beating cupcakes. Oh no. We’re talking about beating a preseason Super Bowl favorite and the defending Super Bowl champions. Not only did the Bucs win both games, but the offense was nothing short of magnificent in both games.Has the tide finally turned?Things are certainly looking that way, but this is still very early in a long season so let’s not get too crazy yet. That said, let’s celebrate a little bit with another victory Monday edition of Pick Six!Six Topics Suitable For Conversation1.) Will Tampa Ride With Fitz Til The Wheels Fall Off? - Ian Rapoport said Sunday morning that Jameis Winston may not get his job back once his suspension is over. Rapoport pointed out that Fitz may get the nod in week four due to the short week following a Monday night game, giving Winston the short week plus the bye week to get prepared. Despite how well Fitz is playing, I still believe Winston will get the job back following the bye. It’s still not entirely clear if Fitz is just playing the best football he’s ever played in his life or if Monken’s offensive approach is what has led to the offensive outpouring we’ve seen thus far. Either way, Winston is still the quarterback of the present and future, but Fitz has set this team up beautifully to start the season.2.) Great Defensive Performance - The defense did everything they needed to do. They forced two turnovers Buccaneers Ryan Jensen Jersey , allowed fewer than 100 yards rushing, and sacked Nick Foles three times. They came up big when it mattered most and ultimately played really good football. This team isn’t going to pitch a shutout week in and week out. They’re going to give up points. They’re going to frustrate people at times. However, in the first two games they have managed to get tough at the right time and get stops when needed. And they’re doing it with two starting rookie corners, a rookie safety (pending the injury to Chris Conte), and a second year safety. Not too shabby.3.) DeSean Jackson Is So Freaking Good - DeSean Jackson has opened up the 2018 season with 275 yards and three touchdowns. He was the second leading receiver in week one and the leading receiver in week two. He is doing everything Bucs fans dreamed of when he was signed. I will continue to sing his praises until there is a reason not to. **Spoiler Alert** - That isn’t coming any time soon.4.) Chandler Can’t-kickenzaro - Yeah, I realize that it was a bad day for kickers across the league (especially that kid in Minnesota who will probably be unemployed by time you’re reading this) but I hated the signing when it happened and Sunday was another prime example why. And that missed extra point could have cost the Buccaneers the game if it weren’t for Evans securing that first down shortly before the two minute warning in the fourth quarter. Time to cut your losses, Bucs. Go get Dan Bailey.5.) Running Game Is Still Struggling - I love Peyton Barber and the way he runs. That said, the numbers aren’t there. He finished with only 22 yards on 16 carries - a 1.4 yards per carry average. Now, a lot of those carries were towards the end of the game to try and run clock, so the Eagles were prepared for it. Still, the Bucs aren’t getting much of a push, creating lanes for Barber to run through. He has the talent, but the Bucs’ O-Line appeared outmatched and overpowered in the run game against Philly. Things won’t get much easier with the Steelers and Bears on the horizon.6.) Don’t Worry About Cam Brate - Cam Brate has gone two games without a single target this season. Yes Buccaneers Beau Allen Jersey , the guy who led the NFL in touchdowns by a tight end two seasons ago and was top three last season has ZERO targets on the season. That won’t continue. Remember, Brate put up all those numbers and earned that big extension with Winston at quarterback. Brate is Winston’s security blanket. Fitz has a raaport with Howard dating back to their work together with the second team offense last season. There’s a trust there. Don’t read too much into it. Brate will become more of a focal point once Winston makes his return.Six Numbers To Consider1 - Quarterbacks in NFL history to have 400+ yards passing and 4+ touchdowns in the first two weeks of an NFL season. That quarterback is Ryan Fitzpatrick2 - Number of 75+ yard touchdowns scored by the Buccaneers on Sunday (DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard). They had nineteen of those plays in franchise history headed into Sunday75 - Total points scored by the Buccaneers through two weeks34 - Mike Evans’ career touchdown receptions, now tied for most in team history with Jimmie Giles8 - Years since the Bucs started 2-0. This also marks Dirk Koetter’s first win in week two since becoming the Bucs’ head coach (3-0 in week one)23 - Number of career 60+ yard touchdown receptions in DeSean Jackson’s career, tying him with Jerry Rice for the most in NFL historySix Best Tweets(These appear in no particular order)(Psst...All of Carmen’s predictions in the following tweet turned out to be right)Six Ways To Celebrate The Victory1.) Go on a Philly Cheesesteak eating binge - just to taste the victory over and over again2.) Relentlessly tweet to the Eagles nothing but GIFs of DeSean Jackson’s touchdown catch3.) Troll the message boards on BleedingGreenNation.com after they ripped our manager Gil Arcia a new one for predicting a Buccaneers victory4.) Troll the message boards on this post for what an idiot I am for picking the Bucs to lose to the Saints and Eagles (and I will gladly pick them to lose every single week if this is the way they play after I do so. I will fall on that sword for you, Bucs fans)5.) Check out the complete meltdown in the comment section over at the Eagles’ Facebook page6.) Remind all those NFL “experts” who picked the Buccaneers to be a one or two win team exactly how moronic they areSix Super Bowl Bets(As always, this list is made before the Sunday Night Football game was completed - not that the Giants or Cowboys had a chance to be on the list anyway)1.) Jacksonville Jaguars - I’m as shocked as you are that I typed that, but they beat New England without Leonard Fournette. That’s a statement if I’ve ever seen one.2.) Kansas City Chiefs - Their defense is useless, but that offense can win a shootout against anyone. Patrick Mahomes is LEGIT.3.) New England Patriots - Still the Pats. Still going to find a way to get to the dance.4.) Minnesota Vikings - If they had a kicker, they’re 2-0. Elite defense, top tier offense. They’re gonna make a run at this...5.) Los Angeles Rams - Same story as the Vikings. That defense, Todd Gurley. It’s almost like cheating at Madden with that roster.10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Took down the Saints. Took down the Eagles. Time to take down the critics.Six Final WordsTime For A Monday Night Showdown